HUCKABEE’S HIGH WIRE ACT

by Lance Thompson

Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, with little money, organization, or official backing, has surged to, if not front-, at least second-runner status in national polls. The GOP nomination, which seemed predetermined only a few months ago, now seems up for grabs. But the Huckabee surge is nationwide and an inch deep, fueled by Republican voters who serially place their faith in the candidate about whom the least is known.

At the beginning of the far too long campaign, New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani shot to the top of the charts, based on his firm handling of the city after the 9/11 terrorist attack and a perception of being moderate enough on social issues to attract middle-of-the-road voters. Arizona Senator John McCain and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remained well behind.

The records of Giuliani, McCain and, to a lesser extent, Romney, were well known to voters who follow politics. Giuliani was the stalwart leader in the wake of tragedy, McCain still enjoyed some of the maverick image of his previous campaign, and Romney was the Republican governor of a very blue state who also devised a way to organize a profitable Olympic Games in Salt Lake City in 1999, for which he should have earned a gold medal.

But none of these three were embraced by social conservatives. Giuliani favored abortion rights, McCain was soft on border issues, and Romney was a recent convert to the pro-life side. Giuliani’s and McCain’s personal lives were not noted for family values, and Romney’s LDS religion was a nagging question. The social conservative candidate was not on the roster.

Then Fred Thompson made noises about running. In a furious frenzy, like birds all rising at once from a telephone wire to circle and land on an adjacent line, social conservatives flocked to Thompson. Here was their man–he talked the talk with a Southern accent, he was well-known, he was in line with social conservative values. Thompson’s poll numbers rose quickly and steadily–until he actually declared himself a candidate. There followed some disappointing public appearances, an organizationally-challenged campaign, and a growing feeling that Thompson just didn’t have the burning desire to win.

The social conservative flock decided to switch wires again, and this time Mike Huckabee was their man. He talked the talk with a Southern accent, he seemed like a regular guy, and as a former Baptist minister and theology student, he aced the family values test. Now, closer to the kick-off of primary season, the shift to Huckabee was even more powerful.

But does the flock really know what Huckabee stands for, besides being strong on pro-life issues and family values? Huckabee was a big tax raiser in Arkansas; favored programs that gave illegal aliens ID cards, educational and medical help; and wants to close Guantanamo Bay. In foreign policy, he offers few specifics on how to deal with the Islamic jihadist enemy or their state sponsors, much less on the increasing friction with Russia, China and North Korea.

Radio host Laura Ingraham compared Huckabee to another little-known Southern governor who rose quickly from obscurity to front-runner, with many of the same attributes–strong Baptist background, folksy conversational style, and a blank slate upon which voters could project their hopes and dreams. Jimmy Carter is still a religious man, but his four brief years as President included a hapless response to a fuel crisis; the giveaway of the Panama Canal; spiraling inflation and interest rates; the withdrawal of support of a key ally, the Shah of Iran, and the acquiescence with the rise of a radical Islamic regime that assaulted our embassy and imprisoned Americans for 444 days; a spineless response to this act of war and a botched rescue attempt; and the American spectator status to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to which the American response was to boycott the Olympics.

None of this could have been foreseen by the voters who swarmed to Carter, attracted by his down-home, front-porch style and small-town roots. But Carter was no hayseed. He was a smart, calculating politician who rode the populist tide into Washington and managed to alienate not only Republicans but many Democrats as well.

Hucakabee seems poised to follow the same path to the nomination for the GOP. He’s no hick, either. No good minister ever ad-libs a sermon, and Huckabee isn’t talking off the cuff now. His plain talk and crackerbarrel witticisms are carefully scripted, as are his deft avoidances of tough questions on illegal immigration, taxes, terrorism and the dangerous world the next President will face.

Giuliani and Romney have both taken strong stances on these issues. While both candidates have faults and weaknesses, their positions are clear. The same cannot be said for Huckabee, who seems to be soaring on personality and the social conservatives’ projected desire for a Man For All Seasons.

Social conservative issues are important. But they represent only one facet of conservative political thought. Certainly the defense of this country, its position in the world, and the state of our national economy are just as important. Huckabee has yet to present a convincing case on these issues.

The question is, will the flock be content to sit on the Huckabee wire, or will a closer look lead to another flap?