Watergate at Number 10 Downing

Watergate at Number 10 Downing
by Quentin Langley - International Editor
01/29/07


George W Bush has already lost Congress. Later this year he will lose his closest ally – Tony Blair. Blair’s departure – planned, at least in outline, for some time – may end up being forced by embarrassing circumstances, which could leave his
successor weakened.

Blair will resign at some point in 2007. He has promised it will be before the Labour Party conference in September. This does not mean, however, that there will be a new election. The Prime Minister holds office by virtue of leading the ruling party – rather as the Speaker of the House does in the US – so when the Labour Party elects a new leader that person will, automatically, become the new Prime Minister.

A Labour leadership election could take several months. The Party needs
to convene an electoral college made up, in equal parts, of the Party’s MPs, local activists, and union representatives. However, if Chancellor (Treasury Secretary), Gordon Brown, is unopposed, it could just as easily be over in days. Within those constraints the timing of Blair’s departure is up to him. He may want to announce his resignation in the run up to mid term local elections in May with his successor taking office after the elections are over. That way neither the departing leader nor his successor will be definitively to blame if, as expected, the Labour Party is humiliated.

However, recent events could put a completely new perspective on Blair’s resignation. A long running investigation into corruption and the sale of honors seems to be leading ever closer to Blair’s own desk. Just a week ago it seemed as though one of Blair’s advisers and a few businessmen, at most, would face charges. But now an aide who works at Downing Street has been arrested, and then released without charge. Significantly, the police investigation seems to have shifted focus. Like Watergate and the Monica Lewinsky affair, attention has turned from the original charges to the cover up. Reports emerged last week of a secret computer system – or possibly just e-mail system – in use at Downing Street. Perhaps it is nothing more than aides using private e-mail accounts to send each other messages while at work. But the Enron investigation showed that e-mails can be used as evidence in court.

This weekend the Sunday Telegraph reported that the police now had a note written in Blair’s own handwriting which could tie the investigation to him. But no-one seems to know what the note actually says, so it is far too early to predict what could come of it.

So far the police have interviewed Blair just once. They didn’t caution him, so he was being interviewed as a witness, not a suspect. But the media are rife with speculation that the handwritten note could spark another interview – and perhaps this time the police will advise him of his right to remain silent.

The longer the investigation continues, the more it could mar the smooth transfer of power that the Labour Party has been hoping for. A source very close to the Labour leadership told the author that he expects Gordon Brown to succeed to power, announce a raft of policy initiatives, and then call an early election to capitalize on his honeymoon with the voters. Brown has been itching to become Prime Minister for decades, and is still resentful that Blair outmaneuvered him at the last leadership election in 1994. Though a very powerful figure in the government, Brown undoubtedly has new policy ideas he wants to introduce. Our source said he will be a bit like a child in a candy store when he finally takes control.

The black cloud of the Scotland Yard investigation could upset all predictions. Brown does not have to call an election, and will only do so if he thinks he will win. If Blair is facing possible criminal charges the chances of an early election would seem to be very remote. Imagine the impact if Blair was arrested in the last week of a campaign!

The odds that Brown will succeed Blair look stronger then ever. John Reid, his strongest rival just weeks ago, has suffered a devastating series of setbacks as leaks have revealed his Home Office (Interior Department) to be responsible for outrageous incompetence. Until now the government’s safest pair of hands, Reid is suddenly looking weak and bewildered. None of the scandals that have engulfed him is new. Most predate his appointment to his current role and reflect as much on his predecessors as on him, but it is only now that the information has leaked out. Such leaks seem to afflict all Brown’s rivals, with monotonous and deeply suspicious regularity. As a result, it is unlikely that anyone will oppose him.

Instinctively Brown is almost as much of a modernizer as Blair. In terms of global trade issues he is, if anything, even more aligned with America. Blair feels most comfortable vacationing with family in France or Italy. Brown’s favorite vacation is taking a mountain of economic textbooks to Cape Cod. But sources close to Brown have recently been hinting he will aim to pull British troops out of Iraq. At the Treasury he has kept a pretty low profile on this issue. As Prime Minister he will do whatever it takes to be popular. He has not schemed for thirty years to get this job only to have it snatched away at his first election.

Brown will expend no political capital to help George Bush. It is not in his nature. He is tribally loyal to the Labour Party – and that means to its Democrat allies in the States. But he lacks Blair’s political skills anyway. A master strategist and policy wonk, he has none of Blair’s warmth. He is a (smarter) Gore to Blair’s Clinton; Cheney to his Bush; Spock to his Kirk.

The policies may not change much, but Bush will not find so friendly a voice on the other end of the phone.